TotalEnergies sees global oil demand peak past 2030

'New Energy Outlook' report lays out three different scenarios depending on the strength of environmental actions. Two most likely scenarios fail to limit warming below 2°C.

TotalEnergies’ Energy Outlook projects that global oil demand will peak after 2030, driven by a growing global population, insufficient power grid investments, and slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles. According to the report, around 4.5 billion people today lack sufficient energy access, a figure that is expected to climb as populations grow in the Global South. Addressing this energy poverty, TotalEnergies estimates, would require quadrupling energy production by 2050 to meet the rising demands, especially in regions like India and sub-Saharan Africa.

The company’s Energy Outlook introduces three possible pathways to address these energy and climate challenges: the Trends, Momentum, and Rupture scenarios. The Trends scenario, based on current global policies, anticipates oil demand peaking after 2035, with consumption settling around 90 million barrels per day by 2050. However, this pathway could result in a temperature increase of 2.6-2.7°C by the end of the century, well above the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting warming to below 2°C.

The Momentum scenario reflects a moderately ambitious path, where countries committed to net zero by 2050 make progress toward their goals. In this scenario, oil demand would peak shortly after 2030, then gradually decline to around 70 million barrels per day by mid-century. This approach is projected to lead to a temperature rise of 2.2-2.3°C, still above the Paris targets, but a step closer.

In contrast, the Rupture scenario aligns with the Paris Agreement's climate goals and requires oil demand to peak before 2030, with consumption falling to 44 million barrels per day by 2050. Achieving this trajectory would require an aggressive and widespread deployment of decarbonization technologies, such as renewable energy, electrification, and carbon capture. This scenario envisions a temperature increase limited to 1.7-1.8°C by 2100, keeping warming well within Paris-aligned goals.

“To meet the growth in energy demand and improve living standards in emerging economies while reducing greenhouse gas emissions, we must prioritize affordable low-carbon technologies and strengthen international cooperation,” says Aurélien Hamelle, TotalEnergies’ Director of Strategy and Sustainability.

The report underscores the critical need for rapid deployment of cost-effective, mature technologies, such as renewables and gas-fired plants, to replace coal. These advancements, coupled with substantial investments in power grids, light electric vehicles, and residential heat pumps, could help transition energy systems while meeting rising demand.

In comparison, the IEA predicts global oil demand will peak by 2030 as rising sales of EVs and higher fuel efficiency will lead to petrochemicals surpassing road transport as the main contributor to oil demand growth, according to its World Energy Outlook 2024.